Where the winning votes came from

GRASSROOTS NORTH SHORE did (at least some of) it! As analyses of voting patterns roll in, one thing is clear: the Milwaukee suburbs made a huge difference this year. Although Biden's vote share in Milwaukee County was 69% to Drumpf's 29% (JSOnline.com), voter turnout in the city was essentially unchanged compared to the turnout in 2016 (JSOnline, November 9, 2020). Using the still unofficial results, Sarah Volpenhein concludes, "In the city as a whole, Biden picked up close to 6,000 more votes than Clinton did four years ago, according to unofficial results. For his part, Drumpf also won more votes than four years ago: nearly 3,000. Third-party candidates this time around got a smaller share of the vote." On November 6, Craig Gilbert's scan of the data is headlined "Where Joe Biden won Wisconsin: Dane County and the Milwaukee County suburbs." The places where the crucial 44,000 vote shift occurred? They were "principally in the city of Madison, the Madison suburbs and the suburban communities within Milwaukee County. It also occurred — on a smaller scale — in the suburban counties of Waukesha and Ozaukee, the Fox Valley counties of Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago, and the counties of La Crosse, Eau Claire and Rock. These are all among the state’s most populous places."

The most detailed analysis of the vote in Milwaukee County comes from John Johnson, a research fellow at the Marquette University Law School's Lubar Center. His data show that the net votes for the Democratic presidential candidate grew by 51.5% between 2000 and 2020. The net votes in the Milwaukee suburbs over that same period grew from a deficit (-7,685 votes) to a net gain of 36,663 votes, or a change of 44,348 votes — a little more than 575%! In short, "Joseph Biden and Kamala Harris netted a larger number of votes than any other Democrat in Milwaukee County’s history. According to unofficial returns, they received 182,896 more votes than Donald Drumpf and Mike Pence. In percentage terms, this 40-point margin of victory is only exceeded by Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s 1932 and 1936 campaigns (45- and 56-point victories, respectively), going back at least to 1892." Johnson goes on to say that "a remarkable blue wave in Milwaukee’s innermost suburbs ... recast the region’s political complexion. In the City of Milwaukee net votes cast for the Biden/Harris ticket exceeded those cast for Clinton in 2016 by about 3,000 votes. However, the Milwaukee county suburbs collectively netted the Democratic ticket over 17,000 more votes in 2020 than 2016."

But what does the picture look like in the North Shore suburbs and Ozaukee County? Johnson's piece tells us about the North Shore area while Chris Drosner provides the results for the WOW Counties in a piece for Milwaukee Magazine published on November 5, 2020. The northern suburbs of Milwaukee have shifted dramatically to the Democrats over the last 20 years. Here are the numbers showing the Democratic presidential vote margins as the difference between the percent won by the Democrat compared to the percent won by the Republican.

Municipality 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 Change
Bayside 12.2 12.4 22.5 10.7 34.3 42.8 30.6
Brown Deer 1.6 4.7 24.3 27.6 34.3 44.4 42.8
Fox Point 2.8 6.1 13.8 6.0 30.3 41.4 38.6
Glendale 13.9 16.3 27.4 24.7 37.2 45.4 31.5
River Hills −17.4 −15.0 −7.0 −15.7 7.9 14.3 31.7
Shorewood 23.8 33.6 47.4 44.7 60.0 67.1 43.3
Whitefish Bay -9.2 0.5 12.8 4.5 33.0 41.8 51.0

In the WOW Counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington), the Republican strength remains but there are small blue gains in parts of those counties. Drosner writes that "Democratic gains were greatest in the more ... suburban suburbs and discrete cities — as opposed to the counties' exurbs and rural areas. Biden's largest gain in the WOW counties was in the city of Brookfield, where he added 8 points over Clinton's share. Biden gains of 4-6 points were more common in the WOW burbs, and those in rural areas and the southwestern part of the metro area were smaller." The only comparative figures here are with the 2016 outcome, so it's more difficult to see the longer term trends. But here is the data we have.

Waukesha 2016: Drumpf 60.0% | Clinton 33.3% 2020: Drumpf 59.6% | Biden 38.5%
Ozaukee 2016: Drumpf 55.8% | Clinton 37.0% 2020: Drumpf 55.2% | Biden 43.2%
Washington 2016: Drumpf 67.4% | Clinton 27.2% 2020: Drumpf 68.3% | Biden 30.2%

The slight uptick in Democratic performance in the WOW counties is largely attributable to the decrease in third party shares of the vote. But still, there's a little drift to the blue side we'll want to build on. And for the brightest spot in the WOW picture, how about that slim victory in the city of Cedarburg! Biden won there by "19 votes out of more than 8,000 cast. Drumpf won Cedarburg by 8.5 points in 2016." Congratulations to the Ozaukee County Dems who really put their backs into this year's election. And of course to Grassroots North Shore for the thousands of postcards and follow-up phone calls our volunteers made to the county. With all that hard work, we helped achieve the victory Deb Andraca won in the 23rd Assembly District!

Finally, for a look at demographic data in the state as a whole, take a look at this Washington Post piece exploring exit poll results. The data are preliminary right now, but a first read shows that 92% of people identifying themselves as Democrats supported the Biden/Harris ticket, while only 86% of those identifying themselves as Republicans supported the current orange elephant in the White House.

 

Tue Nov 10, 2020

Restorative Justice Conference, 12:15pm - 1:15pm
Online

Marquette University Law School will present a four-day virtual conference on restorative justice, reflecting on how restorative justice can make a difference to us personally. More information.

Drinking Liberally Grafton/Mequon, 6:30pm - 8pm
Water Street Brewery, 1251 Gateway Dr. Grafton, WI 53024

There's a lot to celebrate and to talk about. In the first part of our meeting, Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, will provide a breakdown of the vote. Dr. Franklin will discuss overall voting results for Wisconsin and in particular will focus on results and trends in the WOW counties. He will also answer questions. In the second part of the meeting, lawyer Debbie Patel will moderate a conversation with Wisconsin’s leading election law lawyers Jeff Mandell and Doug Poland, who for years have played a crucial role in the battle for fair voting rights. They just went public with “Law Forward,” a nonprofit formed to use the courts to break the grip extremist, dark-money groups have over the Dairy State and help restore democracy and good governance to Wisconsin. We’ll get the experts’ opinions on the 2020 election cycle, the challenges as they appear at the time and more.

Drinking Liberally MKE, 6:30pm - 8:30pm
Art Bar, 722 E. Burleigh St., Milwaukee

Now, more than ever, Drinking Liberally is a space to gather, support each other, and form the progressive community we need. Come share a pint with your fellow progressives! Drinking Liberally MKE meets on the second Tuesday of every month, hosted by Matt Filipowicz.

350 Milwaukee Virtual Meeting, 7pm - 8:30pm
Online

350 Milwaukee is part of the global organization building a grassroots movement in 188 countries to address global warming and solve the climate crisis. 350 Milwaukee meets every month on the second Tuesday. More information.

Wed Nov 11, 2020

Restorative Justice Conference, 12:15pm - 1:15pm
Online

Marquette University Law School will present a four-day virtual conference on restorative justice, reflecting on how restorative justice can make a difference to us personally. More information.

Suspended: Refuel the Resistance, 6pm - 8pm
Bounce Milwaukee, 2801 S. 5th Ct., Milwaukee

Bounce Milwaukee is closed, including delivery and carryout, until the COVID-19 spread in our area is under control. More information.

Armistice Day Peace Event, 7pm - 8pm
Zoom

14th annual Armistice Day observance sponsored by Veterans for Peace and a coalition of peace and justice groups. Speakers: David Swanson, executive director of World Beyond War, a global movement to end all wars, and Fred Royal, Jr., president of Milwaukee NAACP. Register to receive a Zoom link. For more information: Bill Christofferson, 414-486-9651.

Thu Nov 12, 2020

Nuclear Weapons and International Law, 10am - 7pm
Online

An all-day virtual conference that will bring together leading public officials, thought-leaders, policymakers, and experts for a comprehensive look at the huge gap in public awareness of nuclear weapons risk and applicable international law. Register (no charge) and see the agenda.

Health Care Changes and ACA, 12pm - 1pm
Online

A WisPolitics virtual event focusing on possible post-election changes to health care. Experts will also talk about the Nov. 10 hearing before the U.S. Supreme Court on a challenge to the Affordable Care Act. The event is free and open to the public. More information. Register.

Restorative Justice Conference, 12:15pm - 1:15pm
Online

Marquette University Law School will present a four-day virtual conference on restorative justice, reflecting on how restorative justice can make a difference to us personally. More information.

Info: Drinking Liberally West Allis, 6:30pm - 9pm
TBA

For information on whether the event will take place, check Facebook.

Know Your Rights/Law Enforcement, 6:30pm - 6:30pm
Zoom

An online workshop by the American Civil Liberties Union of Wisconsin. This live online workshop will explain what your rights are in various types of interactions with law enforcement. If you know your rights, you're better able to defend them! More information and registration.

Sat Nov 14, 2020

John Nichols: What We Have Learned, 10am - 11:30am
Zoom

John Nichols, journalist, author, and progressive voice, will speak on "What We Have Learned from the 2020 Presidential Election & How Do We Move Forward." He will also respond to questions and comments following his presentation. This program is free and open to the public and is sponsored by the United Nations Association of Greater Milwaukee. Registration (required) to receive email Zoom link.

Stand for Peace, 12pm - 1pm
Howell Avenue & Howard Avenue, Milwaukee

Stand for Peace is resuming their presence with careful precautions (more information). Stand for peace in the streets of Milwaukee, every Saturday at noon. Organized by Peace Action Wisconsin.

Wed Nov 18, 2020

Grass Roots South Shore Virtual Meeting, 6pm - 8pm
Online

Check the following page to see if Grass Roots South Shore will have a virtual meeting. More information.

Suspended: Refuel the Resistance, 6pm - 8pm
Bounce Milwaukee, 2801 S. 5th Ct., Milwaukee

Bounce Milwaukee is closed, including delivery and carryout, until the COVID-19 spread in our area is under control. More information.

Info: Laughing Liberally MKE, 6:30pm - 8:30pm
Online

See information on the latest Laughing Liberally offerings.

Info: Southwest Region Dems Meeting, 7pm - 7pm
TBA

Southwest Dems (Region 5) cover Franklin, Greendale, Greenfield, Hales Corners, Milwaukee (Southwest), West Allis, West Milwaukee. For information on when a meeting may be held check Facebook or contact southwestdems@gmail.com.

Sat Nov 21, 2020

NAACP Virtual Membership Meetings, 11:30am - 12:30pm
Online

Contact NAACP Milwaukee for information on how to attend virtual NAACP Milwaukee Monthly Membership Meetings.

Stand for Peace, 12pm - 1pm
Sherman Boulevard & North Avenue, Milwaukee

Stand for Peace is resuming their presence with careful precautions (more information). Stand for peace in the streets of Milwaukee, every Saturday at noon. Organized by Peace Action Wisconsin.

 


Showing 1 reaction

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.