Winning BIG is Everything!

WOW! What a night. Chris Taylor won a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court (SCOWIS) by a whopping 20 points!

The last four liberal justices won their seats by a mere 10 or 11 points and we all thought that was amazing enough. Every county save one — Menominee — swung toward Democrats compared to the votes in that county for president in 2024.

You've probably seen the map of Wisconsin with counties coded in shades of red or blue, depending on who won that county and by how much. But you may not have seen the "swing" by county. So here is the image from the New York Times account of the Wisconsin election.

Below is a numerical version of the swing toward Democratic votes by counties that are of particular interest to us and by the counties that fall in whole or in part in Congressional District 1 — Bryan Steil's district — and Congressional District 3 — Derrick Van Orden's district.

Counties of Interest
County SCOWIS Winner Presidential Winner Democratic Swing
Brown Taylor +14 Trump +8 Swing Blue +21
Milwaukee Taylor +52 Harris +39 Swing Blue +13
Outagamie Taylor +16 Trump +10 Swing Blue +26
Ozaukee Taylor +4 Trump +11 Swing Blue +15
Sheboygan Taylor +1 Trump +16 Swing Blue +17
Waukesha Lazar +8 Trump +20 Swing Blue: +12
Winnebago Taylor +20 Trump +5 Swing Blue: +25
CD1: Bryan Steil's district
County SCOWIS Winner Presidential Winner Democratic Swing
Kenosha Taylor +18 Trump +6 Swing Blue +24
Racine Taylor +6 Trump +6 Swing Blue +12
Rock Taylor +34 Harris +7 Swing Blue +27
Walworth Lazar +1 Trump +22 Swing Blue +21
CD3: Derrick Van Orden's District
County SCOWIS Winner Presidential Winner Democratic Swing
Adams Lazar +3 Trump +26 Swing Blue +23
Buffalo Lazar +2 Trump +30 Swing Blue +28
Crawford Taylor +20 Trump +14 Swing Blue +34
Dunn Taylor +16 Trump +16 Swing Blue +32
Eau Claire Taylor +36 Harris +12 Swing Blue +24
Grant Taylor +20 Trump +18 Swing Blue +38
Jackson Taylor +6 Trump +19 Swing Blue +25
Juneau Lazar +4 Trump +32 Swing Blue +28
La Crosse Taylor +38 Harris +9 Swing Blue +29
Monroe Taylor 0.4 Trump +26 Swing Blue +26.4
Pepin Lazar +4 Trump +29 Swing Blue +25
Pierce Taylor +14 Trump +17 Swing Blue +31
Portage Taylor +30 Harris +1 Swing Blue +29
Richland Taylor +18 Trump +13 Swing Blue +31
Trempealeau Taylor +12 Trump +21 Swing Blue +32
Vernon Taylor +20 Trump +8 Swing Blue +28
Wood Taylor +4 Trump +20 Swing Blue +24

Here's another way of looking at the breadth and scope of the Taylor win, one that should give us a hefty lift as we look forward to the fall elections and our efforts to unseat Steil and Van Orden. From VoteHub on X:

Congressional District 5, currently occupied by Scott Fitzgerald, lies in the rural areas between Madison and Milwaukee. Obviously it's a much more difficult area for Democrats to win. But Wisconsin CD7, an open seat because Tom Tiffany is currently running for Governor, may be within reach. Ditto CD8 since the Fox Valley trended so heavily blue this spring.

Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes of course. Turnout can be quite different from one election to the next, especially when comparing spring elections, which typically have relatively low turnout, to presidential elections — with the highest turnouts — or to the midterm elections like the one we will have in fall 2026. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's calculation of turnout for this April's election has two different outcomes depending on how it is figured: based on Wisconsin's voting age population or based on all registered voters. The first method yields a statewide average of 32%. The second method yields ~42%. The second method does not include those who registered at the polls on election day, which means there's some uncertainty about the actual number of registered voters when the polls closed at 8pm CT.

Turnout in Milwaukee County, calculated with registered voters, was just shy of 39%. In Ozaukee County turnout was calculated at 48%. Taylor won the county by 4 points. I have not yet calculated all the returns in Oz, but a quick scan tells me she won every ward in the village of Thiensville, every ward in the city of Cedarburg, all but three wards in the city of Mequon, and every ward in the city of Port Washington. Some of those wins were relatively modest but some were HUGE.

I will do a deeper dive into the outcomes in the North Shore and Ozaukee and Washington Counties over the next few days. And I will also send another newsletter with the Events included. The Wisconsin election overshadowed the TACO Tuesday momentous event: our fearful leader's back-pedaling in his war with Iran. But that will have to wait.

This newsletter is all about REAL WINNING. And the results here are down to all of you, making phone calls, sending postcards, and most of all voting. We have some laurels and a few weeks to rest on them before we have to start gearing up for the fall. So a heartfelt thank-you to everyone.

Yours,
Nancy Kaplan
Grassroots North Shore


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