the good news and the bad

What the polls show: Nationally, the polls for the last three months show a growing lead for Joe Biden. On May 6, his lead was 5.4%; on June 6 it was 7%; on July 6 it was 9.6%. And the in that last aggregation of national polls, Biden had topped the 50% mark — at a stupendous 51.1%. Here in Wisconsin, the polls are a bit tighter. May 6 had Biden with a lead of only 2%. On June 6 it had grown to 5.6%. Yesterday, Biden's aggregate lead was at 8.1%. These aggregations all come from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com site and show the average of many polls. The poll Silver rates the highest — the Sienna College/New York Times Upshot poll from June 8-15 — showed Biden with an 11 point lead in Wisconsin, 49% for Biden to 38% for Trump.

In other battleground states, Biden is also leading. In Michigan, he has a lead of 9.7%, in Pennsylvania it's 7.5%, and in Florida it's 6.3%. Even in Arizona, Silver's calculation shows Biden leading by 3.1%! In Ohio, Biden leads by a slim 2.5%. So at the moment, both Arizona and Ohio are winnable. Even though it's early and the narcisist occupying the White House could still eke out a win somehow, the polls show that we have a great map to run on.

Meanwhile coronavirus infections are rapidly increasing, even here in Wisconsin. Again, FiveThirtyEight.com is tracking models from 15 different organizations showing guesstimates of the total fatalities as of August 1, three weeks from now. The national death toll as of July 6 stood at 130,285. The models range from a low of 132,000 - 139,000 to a high of 151,000 - 192,000 deaths by the end of July. In short, the range of estimates is quite large. As Ryan Best and Jay Boice (the authors of the analysis) explain, "the assumptions underlying the models can lead to vastly different estimates." No one model is the correct one. "They’re not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground."

The picture in Wisconsin is not as dire as the one in Texas or Arizona, for example. But it is worrisome. Deaths from the virus have slowed somewhat but the positive rate from tests processed since July 5 is an unacceptably high 9.2%. (To slow the infection rate, the positive test rate must approach 1%.) The July 6 Journal Sentinel Online reported that the "state's seven-day average of new cases, which on Monday was 572, has been rising fairly steadily since June 17, when the seven-day average was 265 new cases per day." As the maps included in the reporting show, confirmed cases and deaths are both most concentrated in the southeast quadrant of Wisconsin. Milwaukee and the WOW counties are all rated as having HIGH rates of virus transmission.

The combination of the good news from polls and the bad news from both national models and local reports about covid-19 means that we will need to work hard over the next four months. And we will continue to have to campaign from the safety of our homes. So here are the latest opportunities to step up and help out.

  • For Grassroots North Shore:
    • Call the Democratic women in Ozaukee County who were sent postcards in late May and early June. We're following up with calls to encourage them to vote absentee in August and November and to be aware of the Democratic primary in the 6th Congressional District. We could use your help. Sign up.
    • Get a Biden yard sign, while they last. Once you sign up, you'll receive information for picking it up.

  • For the Wisconsin Democratic Party in Whitefish Bay, Bayside, Fox Point, and River Hills there are several great opportunities:
    • Tuesday, July 7th, 7:00 - 7:45pm: Flex Callers Kick-Off
      Link: https://secure.ngpvan.com/btZiHGGRNUyaAsdyOWwdFA2
      Description:
      Team Launch for our weekly caller program. Volunteers will be trained on how to make calls on their own time for 3 hours a week through an OpenVPB link sent every Tuesday. The kick-off will be led by Shirley and Jack. There will be a 10-minute presentation covering setting up an ActionID, utilizing OpenVPB, navigating our Bridge Building Script, and laying out our calling strategy for the rest of the month, as well as a period to answer all-volunteer questions.
    • Thursday, July 9th, 3:00 - 4:00pm: June WFB Phone Bank Training
      Link: https://secure.ngpvan.com/a6qjO9o8-0q9brWWkeF6Ug2
      Description:
      Virtual Phone Bank training for new volunteers seeking more information about joining our network. There will be a 20-minute presentation covering the importance of phone banking, how to set up an ActionID, utilizing our OpenVPB system, navigating our Bridge Building Script, and recruiting for our Flex Callers and July WOA led by Shirley and Jack.
    • Tuesday, July 14th, 6:30 - 7:30pm: June WFB Phone Bank Training
      Link: https://secure.ngpvan.com/BrIElMrD6UKxcDL4Y1watA2
      Description:
      Virtual Phone Bank training for new volunteers seeking more information about joining our network. There will be a 20-minute presentation covering the importance of phone banking, how to set up an ActionID, utilizing our OpenVPB system, navigating our Bridge Building Script, and recruiting for our Flex Callers and July WOA led by Shirley and Jack.</br />
  • For the Wisconsin Democratic Party in Thiensville and Mequon there are several more great opportunities:

The number of events in and around Milwaukee remains modest and most are still taking place online. But I'm sure you can find at least one that moves you to Zoom!

EVENTS

Wed Jul 8, 2020

Info: Refuel the Resistance, 6pm - 8pm
Bounce Milwaukee, 2801 S. 5th Ct., Milwaukee

Refuel the Resistance is canceled for now, but Bounce is currently open for delivery and carryout. And check out "Apocalypse Drive-In" when movies are shown every Friday and Saturday in the parking lot and food and beverages can be brought out to your car. (More information on this new program.)

Thu Jul 9, 2020

Drinking Liberally West Allis, 6:30pm - 9pm
Studz Pub Sports Bar & Grill, 6833 W. National Ave., West Allis

Drinking Liberally West Allis meets on the second Thursday of the month. Free discussions and fellowship. Good food and specials available. For information on whether the event will take place, check this link.

BLOC Fundraiser/Rock the Stream, 7pm - 8pm
Online

Singer/songwriter Christopher Porterfield of Field Report will be featured in an online program hosted by Rock the Green to benefit BLOC (Black Leaders Organizing for Communities). More information. Donate.

Sat Jul 11, 2020

UN Assn of MKE, 10am - 12pm
Suspended

This meeting is suspended for the time being. More information.

Info: Stand for Peace, 12pm - 1pm
51st Street & Silver Spring Drive

Stand for Peace is resuming their presence with careful precautions (more information on this). Stand for peace in the streets of Milwaukee, every Saturday at noon. Organized by Peace Action Wisconsin.

Laughing Liberally Milwaukee, 8pm - 10pm
Comedy Sportz Theater, 420 S. 1st St., Milwaukee

During the pandemic, Laughing Liberally Milwaukee has morphed into podcasts with local comedians, to be released on the first and third Wednesday of the month. More information.

Tue Jul 14, 2020

Drinking Liberally Grafton/Mequon, 6:30pm - 8pm
Water Street Brewery, 1251 Gateway Dr. Grafton

More info to come.

Virtual Drinking Liberally MKE, 6:30pm - 7:30pm
Zoom

Drinking Liberally MKE will get together on Zoom. More information

350 Milwaukee Virtual Meeting, 7pm - 8:30pm
Zoom

The Zoom meeting will be about problems with Wisconsin pipelines. More information. 350.ORG is the global organization building a grassroots movement in 188 countries to address global warming and solve the climate crisis. 350 Milwaukee meets every month on the second Tuesday.

Wed Jul 15, 2020

Grass Roots South Shore Virtual Meeting, 6pm - 8pm
Zoom

Grass Roots South Shore will have a virtual meeting. Please take the time to attend this Zoom meeting and be part of the solution. More information.

Info: Refuel the Resistance, 6pm - 8pm
Bounce Milwaukee, 2801 S. 5th Ct., Milwaukee

Refuel the Resistance is canceled for now, but Bounce is currently open for delivery and carryout. And check out "Apocalypse Drive-In" when movies are shown every Friday and Saturday in the parking lot and food and beverages can be brought out to your car. (More information on this new program.)

Drinking Liberally Wauwatosa, 6:30pm - 9pm
Canceled

Camp Bar is closed for now and Drinking Liberally Wauwatosa is canceled. More info.

Info: Living Liberally MKE, 6:30pm - 8:30pm
Art Bar, 722 E. Burleigh St., Milwaukee

On the first and third Wednesday of every month, host Matthew Filipowicz and a different Laughing Liberally MKE comedian will discuss and joke about a news story, and talk a bit about the craft of comedy. The podcasts will be available on the website. More information.

Info: Southwest Region Dems Meeting, 7pm - 7pm
Suspended

Southwest Dems (Region 5) cover Franklin, Greendale, Greenfield, Hales Corners, Milwaukee (Southwest), West Allis, West Milwaukee. For information on when a meeting may be held check this link or contact southwestdems@gmail.com

Sat Jul 18, 2020

Info: NAACP Monthly Meeting, 11:30am - 1pm
2745 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Dr., Milwaukee

The NAACP meeting is likely to be canceled. Call 414.562.1000 for further information. Monthly membership meeting of NAACP Milwaukee Branch. The meeting is held in the basement conference room.

Info: Stand for Peace, 12pm - 1pm
TBA

Stand for Peace is resuming their presence with careful precautions (more information on this). Stand for peace in the streets of Milwaukee, every Saturday at noon. Organized by Peace Action Wisconsin.

Mon Jul 20, 2020

Milwaukee Dems Virtual Meeting, 6pm - 6pm
Zoom

Membership meetings will resume by means of Zoom. Details will be available soon. Milwaukee County Democrats meet monthly to discuss party business, hear speakers on current topics, pass resolutions, and network with other progressives. All interested Democrats are invited.

 


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