not just the indictment

In last week's newsletter, I speculated that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act — the only remaining mechanism in the VRA that could still be used to challenge election maps — would be declared unconstitutional or at least further curtailed. I'm overjoyed to tell you that I was wrong. In a 5-4 decision, Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Kavanaugh joined Justices Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson in the majority. Because this momentous decision was released Thursday, June 8, it was overshadowed by the announcement that a grand jury had issued an indictment of the former president. NPR had a great account of the decision and what it means for Alabama and for minority communities in other states.

The indictment has dominated the news for days. Tuesday afternoon TRE45ON will be arraigned in Miami. No doubt everything will be obsessively filmed for posterity, including the transportation that brings him to and whisks him away from the court house. He's scheduled to rant that evening at 7:15 CDT from his Bedminster abode. I don't know which news outlets, other than Fox, Newsmax, and OAN, will carry it live. Because the indictment's had such thorough coverage, I'm not going to discuss it today. You can read the pdf of the whole 49-page document. It's meticulous and detailed but still an easy (and enjoyable!) read.

Instead, I want to alert you to an ongoing threat to our next presidential election, a threat almost no one has yet heard of: No Labels, a 501c4 organization aiming to put a third party candidate for president on the ballot in all 50 states and all voting US territories. Reasonable, commonsense, bipartisan governance is the way No Labels presents itself. And that sounds great, doesn't it? But it's a trap that will help elect TFG — a.k.a, the former guy. The organization has produced a map that purports to show how the No Labels nominee will win at least 270 electoral college votes. A memo from another nonprofit group, the Third Way, has written extensively on the effort. See Does No Labels’ Math and Map Get Them to the White House? The answer to the question? In no known universe does this math work. The memo makes a very detailed argument, the gist of which is this:

Their notion of what it will take to win in an average state is fatally flawed. No Labels recently told supporters on a Zoom they intend to get at least 34% of the vote in every one of their 25 top target states to win. But 34% is a winning margin in a three-way race only if the Democrat and Republican each win precisely 33%. Such a photo finish is theoretically possible in some of the closely divided, modern-era swing states. But there are not nearly enough such battlegrounds to get them even a third of the way to 270 electoral votes.

Even more worrying — the Third Way analysis used polling from December 2022 to show that the presence of a No Labels candidate would almost surely syphon enough votes from President Biden, or presumably another Democratic candidate, to elect the putative front runner for the Republican nomination, i.e. that abominable orange man. In an update to their original analysis, Third Way argues that even if the No Labels claim that their candidate would earn 70% of the undecided voters were true (which they are at pains to say it isn't),

their unnamed “moderate independent” still spoils Biden’s re-election, still helps re-elect Trump, and still does not achieve a plurality of the popular vote to win the presidency. This echoes more recent polling from Echelon Insights. They showed that when a named third-party candidate is added (here it’s Sen. Joe Manchin), the vote-share of the third-party candidate only reaches nine percent and leads to a 42%-41% Trump victory over Biden in the three-way race.

Be On the Lookout (BOLO) for much more of this BS as we get closer to the election. As Third Way's memo notes, "History makes clear that the No Labels candidate is unlikely to win even a single state. The most successful third-party candidate since the dawn of the modern two-party system (Teddy Roosevelt) won only six states. And though the seven closest states in 1992 were all decided by less than 2.5 points, Ross Perot won zero of them."

—— Take Action ——

Support Bob Tatterson's run for the open seat in Assembly District 24. Election Day is fast approaching and in a super low turnout election — with nothing else on the ballot and in the middle of high summer fun — he who wins will have turned out more of his voters. So, voter contact is key. Most people in AD 24 are simply unaware that this election is taking place, our phoners and canvassers are reporting. Making strong Democrats aware is leading to more people requesting absentee ballots, or making a plan to vote early in person, or planning to go to the polls on election day. You can pitch in by

All these methods work. But it takes many hands.

Even if you don't live in AD 24, consider attending a fundraiser for Bob on Monday, June 26. It will be held at SIP MKE (1515 W Mequon Rd, Mequon) from 5:30 to 7:00pm. RSVP via Act Blue.


You can strengthen our democracy by volunteering with Supermarket Legends to register voters at one of Milwaukee's 3 DMV's. This is indoors in a safe environment under supervision of DMV management. The Teutonia DMV schedules two-hour shifts weekdays 8:20am - 4:45pm. Mill Road DMV schedules Saturday morning. All training and materials are supplied. The approach is non-partisan. Supermarket Legends provides voter education and encourages voters to use absentee ballots. This is very productive and rewarding work. Contact James Balk.


Vote Forward is launching a new letter writing campaign to encourage voter turnout in Ohio’s August special election. So many reached out to request an Ohio-specific campaign, and we heard you loud and clear. Letters will be available starting this week!

Republican lawmakers in Ohio want to increase the voter approval threshold for constitutional amendments from a simple majority to 60%. Ohioans will have the chance to vote "no" on that proposed change in an August 8 special election.

The impetus for the attempt to make it harder for citizens to amend the constitution by referendum is the MAGA fear that the voters of Ohio will successfully protect access to abortion. If you would like to help defeat the change that would make it harder for voters in Ohio to make a change to the constitution that is responsive to a simple majority, sign up here.

EVENTS

Tuesday, June 13

How the Supreme Court Is Dividing America, 5:00 - 6:00pm
Live streamed and in person in New York

The most extreme Supreme Court in decades is on the verge of changing the nation — again. How did we get here? How will overreach by the justices impact the 2024 election? And what can we do to protect American democracy from a deeply political, fiercely partisan Supreme Court? Join us for a discussion of Brennan Center President Michael Waldman’s new book, The Supermajority: How the Supreme Court Divided America, about the Court’s devastating 2021–2022 term. He will be joined by moderator George Stephanopoulos of ABC News, as well as constitutional law scholars Wilfred Codrington III and Cristina Rodríguez. RSVP today. Produced in partnership between 92NY’s Newmark Civic Life Series and the Brennan Center for Justice.

Wednesday, June 14

Gun Violence Prevention and the 2024 Election, 7:00 - 8:00pm
Zoom

The scourge of gun violence frustrates sane Americans like almost no other issue. Often on a daily basis, we’re confronted with yet another mass shooting, and the pace of the neverending violence, followed by the predictable inaction of Republicans in Washington, reminds us of the many ways in which our system is broken. If we can’t change the minds of these politicians, then we must change the politicians. We must call out and resoundingly defeat those Republicans who have made it their mission to oppose common sense gun safety reforms. Join Activate America and our special guests from Newtown Action Alliance to learn more about gun violence prevention and how you can help elect officials who will take meaningful action on this critical issue. Sign up.

Thursday, June 15

Milwaukee County 2024 Dems Strategy Session, 5:30 - 7:30pm
8405 W Lisbon Ave, Milwaukee

Join our team for a strategy session to discuss the various ways we can expand our outreach and voter turnout throughout the County! We know that Milwaukee County plays a huge part in whether we win or lose elections here in Wisconsin. It's going to take all of us working together to make sure we have the outcome we all want in 2024. Sign up.

Saturday, June 17

Canvass for the Assembly District 24 Special in GRAFTON!, 9:00am - noon and 3:00 - 6:00pm
1930 Wisconsin Ave, Grafton

Join us to knock on doors for the crucial Assembly District 24 Special Election in GRAFTON! Sign up

Knock doors in Menomonee Falls, 9:00am - noon and 3:00 - 6:00pm
Fiddleheads Coffee, Menomonee Falls (N88 W16621, Appleton Ave, Menomonee Falls)

Join us to knock doors for the Assembly District 24 Special Election in Menomonee Falls! Sign up.

Brown Deer Dems Team Launch!, 11:00am - 12:30pm
Kurt Schulz Deli & Pastry Shoppe, 8752 N Deerwood Dr, Milwaukee

Join other Democrats in your area to launch a Brown Deer volunteer action team! We will be getting together, talking politics, and planning out what we can do to elect Democrats up and down the ballot in 2024. Sign up.

North Shore Knocks Doors for Bob Tatterson, 12:00 - 3:00pm
6563 N Crestwood Dr., Glendale

Join the Grassroots Glendale team to knock doors for the special election in Assembly District 24! We'll be canvassing in Mequon. To make the effort easier, and more fun, ask for a driver. Please Sign Up.

Stand for Peace, 12:00 - 1:00pm
35th/Fond du Lac/Burleigh, Milwaukee

Stand for Peace demonstrates for peace at a different intersection in Milwaukee County every Saturday.

Monday, June 19

Milwaukee's Juneteenth Celebration!, 12:00 - 2:00pm and 4:00 - 6:00pm
Sign up for address

Come volunteer with the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and Milwaukee County Dems for this year's Juneteenth Celebration! Help with setup/takedown, talking to voters about local issues and upcoming elections, and connect with neighbors, as we build our coalition and long term infrastructure in this thriving community. Sign up.

Wednesday, June 21

WisDems Post-Spring Election Analysis Presentation, 6:00 - 7:00pm
Virtual

Join our Post-Spring Election Analysis and Debrief Meeting on Wednesday, June 21st at 6pm with the Organizing and Data team. We will be discussing the results of the Spring Election and lessons learned. Please register ahead of the call.

30 Years of Recycling in Wisconsin, 7:00 - 8:30pm
Virtual

Ever wonder what happens after you drop your soda can in the recycling bin? What is actually recycled, how has it changed over the past years and what can we expect with the future of recycling? 30 Years of Recycling in Wisconsin: Successes, Challenges and Looking Ahead will discuss a range of recycling issues with a brief evaluation of Wisconsin's successes, challenges and future of recycling. Register.

June General DPOC Meeting, 7:00 - 8:00pm
1930 Wisconsin Ave, Grafton

The Democratic Party of Ozaukee County meets on the third Wednesday of the month at our office. We're on the lower level by the hardware store. Join us as we gather to hear speakers and catch up on the local and state politics influencing Ozaukee County – while spending time with like-minded people. All interested people are encouraged to attend.

Thursday, June 22

Teach-in: 10 Years of Voter Suppression Under Shelby, 3:00 - 4:00pm
Virtual

Join the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, the Declaration For American Democracy, Public Citizen, the Workers Circle, and more for a teach-in and call to action as we approach 10 years from the Shelby v. Holder Supreme Court rulings. It’s been 10 years since the Supreme Court’s Shelby County v. Holder ruling that gutted the Voting Rights Act. This ruling directly impacted racial justice in our country and overturned years of progress. The freedom to vote is inextricably connected to our ability to beat back regressive policies like those targeting abortion access and LGBTQ rights. Voting rights protect ALL other rights. Ten years after Shelby County, we fight to protect and exercise the vote. Join us to learn how we can take action to protect our freedom to vote.

Saturday, June 24

Knock doors in Menomonee Falls, 9:00am - noon and 3:00 - 6:00pm
Fiddleheads Coffee, Menomonee Falls (N88 W16621, Appleton Ave, Menomonee Falls)

Join us to knock doors for the Assembly District 24 Special Election in Menomonee Falls! Sign up.

North Shore Knocks Doors for Bob Tatterson, 12:00 - 3:00pm
6563 N Crestwood Dr., Glendale

Join the Grassroots Glendale team to knock doors for the special election in Assembly District 24! We'll be canvassing in Mequon. To make the effort easier, and more fun, ask for a driver. Please Sign Up.

Fox Point Dems Bridge Building Canvass, 12:00 - 3:00pm
7632 N Beach Dr, Fox Point

Come join the Fox Point Dems as we talk to voters about the issues that matter most to them ahead next year's crucial elections! Please Sign Up.

Stand for Peace, 12:00 - 1:00pm
Farwell and North Ave, Milwaukee

Stand for Peace demonstrates for peace at a different intersection in Milwaukee County every Saturday.

Northwest MKE Day Of Action Canvass With WisDems, 9:00am - 12:00pm, 12:00 - 3:00pm, & 3:00 - 6:00pm
WisDems Milwaukee Field Office, 8405 W Lisbon Ave, Milwaukee

Come join us as we go door to door throughout Northwest Milwaukee speaking to voters about the issues that are truly important to them. This is a great chance to lay the groundwork while also getting an idea of how voters feel heading into 2024. Sign up now!

Monday, June 26

Bob Tatterson Fundraiser, 5:30 - 7:00pm
SIP MKE, 1515 W Mequon Rd, Mequon

Given the makeup of our State Assembly, every new Democratic vote matters. Bob Tatterson is an excellent candidate for the seat long held by now State Senator Dan Knodl, whose margin in April was very slim. The stakes are high, no matter where we live, and the opportunity to flip the 24th district is increasing. Please join hosts Representative Deb Andraca, Debbie Patel, Jodi Habush Sinykin, and Wisconsin Jewish Democrats for a fun evening at SIP MKE with co-chairs Linda Frank, Debbie Zemel, Maggie Gorchoff, and Richard Schwalb. Contribution Levels: Host $1000 | Co-host $500 | Friend $50 | Guest $25. Contributions of any amount gratefully appreciated. RSVP via Act Blue.

SAVE THE DATE

Saturday, July 2, and Tuesday July 4

Family Fun on the Fourth Parade, 9:00 - 11:00am
parade routes

f you would like to march in the Thiensville and/or Cedarburg parades, please fill out the form below. Then, watch your email for more details as we get closer to the event. Get that OzDems Tshirt ready - and practice that wave - it'll be here before you know it! ** We will have professionally printed signs to folks to carry! See information about how to participate in the Thiensville parade (Saturday, June 2) and the Cedarburg parade (Tuesday, July 4).

Sunday, July 9

Grassroots North Shore Presents: To US, 3:30 - 5:00pm
Doctors Park, 1870 E Fox Lane, Fox Point

It's a party to celebrate our country's 247th birthday. John Nichols — National Editor for The Nation, Madison Editor of the Capitol Times, author of Dollarocracy and other books, and the Voice of Wisconsin Progressivism — will get us ready for 2024 with a talk on where we have been and where we are going. Bob Tatterson, now running in a special election for Assembly District 24, will also be on hand to speak, meet, and greet. Enjoy beverages and birthday cake. Bring your family, your folding chairs, and your hope for our future as we celebrate our good work in recent elections. RSVP.

Friday - Monday, September 1 - 4

The Golden Rule, an historic sailboat, docks in Milwaukee
The Golden Rule, a storied sailboat that helped bring about an end to atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons, will stop in Milwaukee Sept. 1-4 as part of a 15-month, 11,000-mile voyage to inform and educate the public about the dangers of nuclear weapons proliferation. A number of public events will be held, and speakers / crew members will be available for presentations at schools, churches or other venues during the four-day visit. Boat tours and visits with the crew will be offered every afternoon. (See a real-time map of the boat's journey.) The Golden Rule is a project of Veterans For Peace.

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