The news biz went crazy both with the TFG's announcement of a target letter setting him up for indictments in his multiple efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and with the superseding indictment in the documents case. It seemed like all they could talk about for the last week and more. But we do not have to follow suit. If you want a more fulsome explanation of one of the elements in the target letter — the one that mentions 18 U. S. C. section 241 — you might want to read An Overlooked January 6 Charge: The “Stop the Count” Scheme by Ryan Goodman and Andrew Weissmann on the Just Security site. The piece looks at how the Justice Department has used the charge in the past and how it applies to the current inquiry.

I would rather look more carefully at the voting patterns from the special election for AD 24. It's a bit of an exercise in reading tea leaves: with the low turnout, it does not necessarily translate into highly likely predictions for the future. But it still shows gains in some of the redder areas of our state. In an email to supporters, Bob Tatterson pointed out that although he lost the overall election (though only by 7%), he did win five of the seven communities in the district. And it's true! He won the Village of Grafton, Mequon, and Menomonee Falls, as well as the Town of Germantown and the one ward of Port Washington in the district. That Port Washington ward is my favorite: there were all of 2 voters and BOTH voted for Bob! I've compiled all the data so you can look at it yourself. Download a pdf of the spreadsheet.

Democrats have made steady gains in the WOW counties in the last several elections. The results from the special election continue that trend. In last week's newsletter, Ben Wikler linked to what we used to call a tweet by Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse. Chergosky points out that the "district was Trump +24 in 2016, Trump +17 in 2020, and Melotik (the GOP candidate) +7 today." As I said in the last paragraph, comparisons with past elections as a way to understand the political landscape may be skewed by the lighter-than-average turnout. For a special election in the middle of summer, though, the turnout was more robust than expected: in the mid-to-high 20s in three communities in Waukesha and Washington counties and in the mid-30s in the Ozaukee county communities. (Port Washington's one ward, of course, had a turnout of 100%! I'm not counting that as a realistic view of what the future holds.) That trend is an excellent reason not to take too long a break from working toward future elections. The Democratic party is certainly not resting for long. They've scheduled deep canvassing events for at least one weekend a month through November. You'll find the first of these in the North Shore in the Events list.

Deep canvassing is a way of holding conversations with voters when there's no election in the offing and the goal is to elicit voters' concerns. The technique was first developed in 2012 and has been studied since then. Professors David Broockman and Josh Kalla have conducted six studies and "have found that deep canvassing does have measurable effects" (See Deep Canvassing in Wikipedia). For a readable, non-academic account, see Andy Kroll's article Can Millions of Deep Conversations With Total Strangers Beat Trump — and Heal America? in Rolling Stone (July 15, 2020). I'm told the group of voters the party wants to contact have been somewhat neglected of late. And this is a good way to expand the pool of likely voters for 2024. So look for the opportunities near you and sign up for a shift.

Our friends at Swing Left Milwaukee are working closely with WisDems on bridge building canvasses this summer and fall. You can join their group for a weekend of action on August 19-20, where they'll be talking to voters we don't have as much data on yet – which will be crucial to laying the groundwork for 2024. If you can't make it this time but you're interested in working in Bay View or other city areas, join Swing Left Milwaukee's group email list to stay in the loop on future ways to get involved with voter registration, canvassing, phone banking, letter writing, and texting. Please sign up if you'd like to try it in Bay View. For more information, contact Dale Nook, 414-690-0311.

And in joyous news, Judge Janet Protasiewicz becomes Justice Janet Protasiewicz today. The investiture ceremony is completely booked, unfortunately. So if you have not already RSVP'd, it's too late. But even if you can't watch her "fly up" as it were, you know that her presence on the Supreme Court of Wisconsin (SCOWI) foretells legal rulings that will impact many lives in our state. A lawsuit challenging our partisan voting maps is likely to be filed within days of the investiture. And because the suit basically appeals an earlier SCOWI ruling, it will go directly to the Supreme Court without the lower courts ruling first. If the court is reasonably expeditious, Wisconsin could have new maps — presumably both congressional and state assembly/senate maps — before candidates for those offices will have to begin circulating nomination papers in spring 2024. Election maps that define more competitive districts will begin to reshape the sour politics we have endured in this state since Scott Walker's first election. And wouldn't that be welcome!

A fun blog post on Daily Kos Monday, quotes from the judge who dismissed TFG's suit that argued to quash the report of the Georgia Special Grand Jury and "demanded that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis be barred from prosecuting any cases against him, claiming she is biased." Both the demand to burn the report and to remove D.A. Willis from the case were denied. The footnotes to the opinion are priceless. For example, the blogger notes that in footnote five, the judge uses an idiom — "a blot on an escutcheon" — that derives from the heraldic shield, also known as an escutcheon, and means a stain on one's reputation. The full context of the remark is "in this situation, movants overwrought allegations of prosecutorial overreach and judicial error do not suffice to show there is a significant risk of a ‘wrongful’ indictment (or even a blot on an escutcheon)." On pages 7-8, he quotes this passage: "The drumbeat from the District Attorney has been neither partisan (in the political sense) nor personal, in marked and refreshing contrast to the stream of personal invective flowing from one of the movants." We don't even need to guess who he means.

Finally today, I leave you with this bit of wisdom from Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo. By Every Imaginable Measure, Trump Crushing GOP Primary Race. Marshall begins, "the Times is out today with a poll that is absolutely devastating for Ron DeSantis. But in truth it is devastating for every Republican candidate not named Donald Trump. It is only devastating for DeSantis inasmuch as he is the only candidate who appears to be in the race at all rather than running what amounts to a novelty or lifestyle campaign." In a head-to-head comparison of TFG and DeSantis, the poll asks whether a specific word better describes *rump or what Marshall dubs "the Jebbite" candidate (a reference to the Jeb Bush campaign in 2016). DeSantis has his best showing with "likable" and "moral." But Marshal focuses on "fun," unpacking what TFG supporters take it to mean:

I think Marshall is right on the money. No number of indictments, civil suits, or convictions will derail that candidacy. We need to get and stay busy to defeat him here in Wisconsin.

PS: Someone left a black sweater at the July 9 Grassroots North Shore event at Doctors Park. It's a Chico’s Size 1 Black Rayon/Polyester Sweater. If this belongs to you, please email or call Ginny Goode: [email protected], (414) 460-5686. Thank you.

SAVE THE DATE

Wednesday, August 16

Saturday, August 19

Sunday, August 20

Tuesday, August 29 through Tuesday, September 26

Wednesday, August 30 - Tuesday, September 5

Sunday, September 10